A Guide to Our Forecasting Tool

Origin’s Forecasting Tool lets you simulate your financial future — from buying a home to retiring early — using the same professional-grade methods financial planners rely on.

You can model short- and long-term outcomes, adjust assumptions, and see how key life decisions might impact your net worth, cash flow, and retirement readiness.

Why We Built It

Traditional financial planning often requires high fees or minimum asset thresholds. Origin’s mission is to make those insights accessible to everyone, regardless of income or wealth.

Our tool integrates professional planning logic into a friendly, intuitive interface — so you can explore your “what-ifs” and make smarter financial decisions.

What the Forecasting Tool Can Do

You can model how different life decisions could affect your long-term finances. Examples:

• What if I retire at 60? 
• What if I buy a house in 5 years? 
• What if I receive a raise or start a side business? 
• What if I pay for my child’s education?

Each scenario updates your net worth projection, success probability, and cash-flow timeline instantly.

Core Features

1. Net Worth Tracking - See how your wealth evolves over time. We factor in income, spending, investments, debt, and home appreciation using an average rate of return that you can adjust based on your risk level.
2. Cash Flow Analysis - Visualize projected income and expenses year-by-year to identify potential shortfalls, surpluses, or lifestyle-affordability gaps.
3. Monte Carlo Simulation - To reflect market uncertainty, we run thousands of simulations. Your “success rate” shows how often your plan ends retirement with positive net worth.

Our Planning Assumptions

We use industry-standard assumptions and conservative estimates so you get a realistic view. Example assumptions:

• Inflation: 3% annually (applied to income, expenses, tax brackets) 
• Real estate & education costs: 5% growth per year 
• Investment returns: You choose conservative, moderate, or aggressive 
• Taxes & withdrawals: Includes federal + state income tax, capital gains, NIIT. 
• Default withdrawal order: Taxable accounts → Traditional retirement → Roth

Tax Modeling

• We account for federal + state income taxes, Social Security, Medicare, and capital gains. 
• Filing status (Single, MFJ, MFS, HoH) is applied across deductions, brackets, and Social Security formulas. 
• Capital Gains Assumption: 65 % of taxable withdrawals are treated as long-term gains; 35 % as principal return. 
• Inflation Adjustments: All tax brackets, contribution limits, and thresholds grow with inflation. Some taxes (FICA, NIIT) remain static unless updated by law.

This level of tax realism ensures that your forecast closely reflects how taxes affect long-term outcomes.

Modeling Life Events

Retirement Planning

• Default spending target: 80 % of current expenses (industry standard). We calculate how much you’ll need using the present-value-of-a-growing-annuity formula to account for inflation.
• Saving Priority
  • Traditional Retirement Accounts Roth Accounts Taxable Brokerage Accounts
  • Future updates will let you customize contribution order.
• Withdrawal Strategy
  • Taxable accounts 
  • Traditional retirement accounts 

  • Roth accounts
    
    This approach minimizes taxes while maximizing long-term growth.

    RMDs are automatically included based on the latest IRS life-expectancy tables.

• Social Security
  • We model early and delayed claiming (ages 62–70). 
  • Default assumption encourages claiming at 70 for a 124 % benefit multiplier. 
  • Replacement-rate assumptions (adjusted for inflation): 
    • <$30 k income → 40% 
    • $30–80 k → 30% 
    • $80–176 k → 20% Survivor benefits modeled per current SSA rules.

Legacy Planning

• Set a target inheritance amount (e.g., $1 M).
• The forecast will track both your retirement success rate and your legacy success rate — giving you two probabilities to evaluate.

Home Purchase & Sale

• Buying: 
  • Input purchase price, down payment, loan term, and rate. 
  • Regional median values available as a guide. 
  • Default 5 % annual appreciation. 
  • Generates full amortization schedule.
• Selling:
  • Syncs with Zillow estimates (optional). 
  • Accounts for 6 % realtor fees + closing costs. 
  • Calculates capital gains tax and Section 121 exclusion ($250 k / $500 k).

College Planning

• Choose national averages or specific institutions. 
• Default 5 % tuition inflation. 
• Supports 529 plans with tax-free qualified withdrawals. 
• Model funding percentages (100 %, 50 %, etc.).

Having Children

• Default cost: $22 k per child per year (adjustable). 
• Set support duration (e.g., age 18 or 22). 
• Add layered goals like college or housing support.

Windfalls

• Model one-time inflows like inheritances, settlements, business sales, or bonuses.
• Default treatment assumes tax-free, though you can input after-tax amounts.

Secondary Income

• Add a second income stream (side job, consulting, part-time work).
• Set start date, duration, and amount to see how it affects your plan.

Custom Events

• Create any custom income or expense event — recurring or one-time.
  • Examples: dream vacation, medical procedure, moving abroad, major bonus.

All custom events integrate directly into your forecast.

Equity Compensation Forecasting

• Supports ISOs, NSOs, RSUs, and public equity positions.
• Input grant details and assumptions (exercise, vesting, sale timing, exit value).
• We integrate these events into your overall forecast to show their impact on net worth and retirement success.

Coming Soon

• Debt pay-down strategies (snowball & avalanche) 
• Real-estate investment modeling for rental properties 
• Custom savings and withdrawal prioritization